Evidence Strength for Non-Human Intelligence

Based exclusively on the 78 documents in PURSUE Release 01

47%
NO EVID. INCON. SUGG. COMP. DEFIN.
0%20%40%60%80%100%
SUGGESTIVE

The documents prove the U.S. government has tracked objects with extraordinary, unexplained capabilities for 80+ years. They do not prove these objects are alien. More than nothing — far less than proof.

▲ What Pushes the Needle Up

  • Objects performing maneuvers impossible for known aircraft — multiple 90-degree turns at 80 mph, sustained 483 mph for 7+ minutes
  • SWIR-only visibility suggests engineered spectral properties not matching any known aircraft
  • "Cold" IR signatures in Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea — no conventional propulsion produces a cold signature in sustained flight
  • 80 years of consistent reporting across 4 agencies, from 1944 to 2025
  • 1963 White House memo treating alien contact as a policy question worth planning for
  • Objects in restricted military airspace with no flight plans, no transponders, no identification

▼ What Keeps the Needle Down

  • Zero files explicitly identify any object as extraterrestrial
  • No recovered materials, no biological evidence, no communication documented
  • Many historical files (FBI case files) are investigations of reports, not confirmed encounters
  • Gemini 7 "bogey" was likely booster debris (noted in document description)
  • WWII foofighters could be experimental technology or atmospheric phenomena
  • Government redaction policy explicitly states UAP information is NOT being hidden
  • Sensor data could have conventional explanations — equipment anomalies, atmospheric effects

Inside the 78 Files

Data-driven analysis of every speed, shape, sensor, and anomaly documented in PURSUE Release 01 — sourced exclusively from the primary documents.

Every data point on this page is extracted directly from the 78 files released at war.gov/ufo. No external sources. No inference. No speculation.

Documented Speeds

Only 8 of the 78 files include explicit speed estimates. Every value below is a direct quote from the document description.

P-8A Sea Skim, Syria Nov 2016
500 kn / 575 mph
Diamond UAP, Greece Jan 2024
434 kn / 499 mph
"Bouncy Ball," Syria Nov 2023
~424 kn / 483 mph
UAP, Arabian Gulf 2020
321 kn / 369 mph
Two UAP, Mediterranean N/A
278 kn / 320 mph
"Round Cold Object," Gulf of Aden Sep 2020
277 mph
Triangular Metallic, Mediterranean N/A
168 kn / 193 mph
UAP, Gulf of Oman Jun 2024
163 kn / 187 mph
90° Turns, Greece Oct 2023
~80 mph
"Round Cold Object," Arabian Sea Oct 2020
~20 mph
0100 mph200 mph300 mph400 mph500+ mph
All values: knots (kn) / miles per hour (mph). Bar width proportional to max documented speed (575 mph).
📊
Range: 20 mph to 575 mph. The fastest documented object (575 mph, Syria) was tracked by a P-8A maritime patrol aircraft's EO/IR sensor in "sea skim mode." The slowest with explicit data (20 mph, Arabian Sea) was a "round, cold object" making "abrupt directional changes." Speed alone isn't the anomaly — the combination of speed, morphology, and behavior is.

How They Were Detected

The sensor type determines what you can see. These are the detection methods explicitly named in the documents.

🔴

Infrared (IR)

5+ encounters

Standard military thermal imaging. Documents reference "black hot" IR mode, onboard IR sensors, and MX-20/MX-25 IR sensors. Used to track objects in Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, Arabian Gulf, and Iraq.

Key finding: Two encounters describe "cold objects" on IR — anomalous because conventional aircraft and missiles produce heat signatures.
🟡

Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR)

1 encounter

The Greece January 2024 diamond-shaped UAP was "only visible when viewed via an onboard Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) sensor."

This is the most significant sensor finding in the release: an object invisible to all other detection methods, only detectable on a specific infrared band.
🔵

EO/IR (Electro-Optical / Infrared)

2+ encounters

Combined visible-light and infrared sensor suite. The P-8A pilot near Syria detected the 500-knot sea-skim object via the aircraft's EO/IR sensor.

EO/IR is a high-confidence sensor — if it tracks an object at 500 knots at sea level, the data deserves serious analysis.
🎯

Targeting Pod

2+ encounters

One operator achieved a track on "several bright objects" via targeting pod for approximately 20 seconds before they "dimmed and disappeared." Another detected a "significant heat source" moving at high speed via MX-20 and MX-25 sensors.

Targeting pods are designed to lock onto aircraft — when an object disappears from one, it's either moved beyond range or changed its signature.
📹

Full-Motion Video (FMV)

3+ encounters

Military full-motion video feeds captured the Syria October 2024 "misshapen ball of white light" and the Persian Gulf August 2020 encounter where "dense cloud coverage intermittently impacted FMV collection."

FMV provides continuous visual record — yet no imagery has been released alongside these reports.
👁️

Visual Observation

Majority of encounters

Most MISREPs and range fouler reports are based on visual observation by trained military personnel, including the WWII foo fighters, Gemini 7 sighting, and numerous Gulf encounters.

While visual observation is the least precise, these are trained military observers using standardized reporting forms.

What They Looked Like

Shape descriptions explicitly stated in document narratives. Many MISREPs do not include shape data.

Diamond

Greece, Jan 2024

"Diamond-shaped, with a non-maneuvering probe at the bottom." SWIR-only visibility.

Triangular & Metallic

Mediterranean Sea

"Triangular and metallic UAP." 24,989 ft altitude, 168 knots.

Round / Spherical

Multiple locations, 2020

"Round, cold object" (Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea). "Bouncy ball" (Syria 2023). "Balloon-shaped, metallic, and reflective" (Oct 2020).

Circular

Germany 1944 • Detroit 1958

"Large, circular, vertically-rising vehicle" (Krasuski, 1944). "Circular object with a crystal-type dome" (Detroit FBI report, 1958).

Cylindrical

Germany, 1944–1945

"Unidentified cylindrical objects" documented alongside foo fighters by the 415th Night Fighter Squadron.

Light / Glare

Syria Oct 2024 • Iraq 2020

"Misshapen and uneven ball of white light" with "light/glare halo effect" (Syria). "Several bright objects" that "dimmed and disappeared" (Iraq).

Disc / Saucer

FBI files, 1947–1968

FBI case file 62-HQ-83894 and 1946–1949 DoW files document "flying discs" and "flying saucers" extensively across 21 years of investigations.

"Line of Dots"

Arabian Gulf, 2020

"Line of dots followed by a trailing dot." Unique morphology — not matching any conventional aircraft profile.


Anomalous Behaviors Documented

Unusual performance characteristics explicitly described in the 78 files, organized by behavior type. Each entry links to the specific document that describes it.

Unusual Speed / Sustained Velocity

6 documents
  • 575 mph in sea skim mode — P-8A EO/IR, Syria, Nov 2016
  • 499 mph, diamond-shaped — SWIR only, Greece, Jan 2024
  • 483 mph sustained for 7+ minutes — "bouncy ball," Syria, Nov 2023
  • 369 mph, changed direction — Arabian Gulf, 2020
  • 320 mph, increased speed — two UAP, Mediterranean
  • "Speed was faster than flying speed" — Gulf of Aden, Jul 2024
↩️

Abrupt Directional Changes

4 documents
  • "Multiple 90-degree turns at an estimated 80 mph" — flying above the ocean surface, Greece, Oct 2023
  • "Abrupt directional changes" — round cold object at 20 mph, Arabian Sea, Oct 2020
  • "Made a few abrupt directional changes" — round cold object at 277 mph, Gulf of Aden, Sep 2020
  • "Increased speed and changed direction" — Arabian Gulf, 2020 (two separate reports)
👻

Unusual Signatures / Low Observability

4 documents
  • SWIR-only visibility — invisible to all other sensors, Greece, Jan 2024
  • "Cold object" on IR — no heat signature despite sustained flight, Gulf of Aden, Sep 2020
  • "Cold object" on IR — same anomaly, Arabian Sea, Oct 2020
  • Dimmed and disappeared from targeting pod — bright objects vanished after 20 seconds, Iraq, 2020
🔗

Multi-Object / Coordinated Behavior

4 documents
  • "Formation of unknown flying objects" — traveling NE to NW along coast, Persian Gulf, Aug 2020
  • Three UAP "moving amongst each other" — one surpassing another at higher speed, Arabian Gulf, Aug 2020
  • "One range fouler was circling around the other" — two balloon-shaped metallic objects, Oct 2020
  • Three "unidentified small air contacts" — maintained relative course, speed, and altitude, Arabian Sea, Aug 2020
🌊

Near-Surface / Trans-Medium Indicators

3 documents
  • "Flying just above the surface of the ocean" — 90° turns, Greece, Oct 2023
  • "Sea skim mode" at 500 knots — extreme low altitude, Syria, Nov 2016
  • "Erratic movements above the water" — solid white object, Persian Gulf, May 2020
🔆

Anomalous Appearance / Luminosity

4 documents
  • "Misshapen and uneven ball of white light" — with "light/glare halo effect," Syria, Oct 2024
  • "2x red blinking strobes" — balloon-shaped metallic objects, Oct 2020
  • "Blinking lights" — over Germany, 415th Night Fighter Squadron, 1944–1945
  • "A brilliant body in the sun against a black background with trillions of particles" — Gemini 7, Dec 1965

82 Years of Records — The Full Picture

File count by era, showing the two conspicuous gaps and the 2020 concentration.

1944–1945
2
WWII foo fighters, Krasuski account
1946–1949
4
Flying disc memos, FBI case files begin
1950–1968
16
FBI 62-HQ-83894 bulk, State Dept memos, incident summaries
1969–1995
0
26-year gap — no files released
1996–2000
2
Vandenberg launch summary, booster modeling
2001–2015
0
14-year gap — height of ISR operations
2016–2019
1
P-8A Syria encounter (Nov 2016)
2020
~15
Peak year — Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden cluster
2021
0
No files
2022
4
Iraq, Syria MISREPs
2023
8
Greece, Syria, UAE, Persian Gulf encounters
2024
6
Greece diamond UAP, Iraq, Syria, Gulf of Aden
2025
2
INDOPACOM correspondence, Djibouti MISREP
The 2020 spike is notable. Roughly 15 files cluster in a single year — concentrated in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Strait of Hormuz. This likely correlates with the formalization of UAP reporting after the 2019–2020 Navy guidelines and early UAP Task Force operations. More sensors watching + standardized reporting = more documented encounters.

Where the Encounters Happened

Location data from documents that specify an incident location. ~20 files (FBI case files, policy memos) have no specified location.

Middle East / CENTCOM Theater ~33 files

8Syria
6Persian Gulf
5Iraq
3Mediterranean Sea
2Aegean Sea (Greece)
2Arabian Sea
2Gulf of Aden
2Strait of Hormuz
1Gulf of Oman
1Iran
1Djibouti

The Middle East dominance reflects where the U.S. has maintained the most persistent ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) presence. More sensors = more observations.

Other Locations ~8 files

2Low Earth Orbit (Gemini 7)
2Germany (WWII)
2Pacific Ocean / Time Zone
1Netherlands
1Azerbaijan (USSR)
1Detroit, Michigan

No Location Specified ~20 files

FBI case file sections (14), historical DoW memos, policy documents, Vandenberg launch records, and some Arabian Gulf MISREPs list no specific incident location.

📍
Strategic chokepoint concentration. The Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, and Gulf of Aden are among the world's most surveilled waters. But the concentration of encounters near these critical waterways — where every naval power maintains persistent ISR — is at minimum worth noting.

What Each Agency Contributed

Four agencies, radically different document styles and time periods.

Department of War

52 files (66.7%)
Time Span1944 – 2025
Primary TypeMISREPs & Range Foulers
With DVIDS Video13 files
With Speed Data8 files
With Shape Data8 files

The bulk contributor. Modern MISREPs follow standardized reporting formats but vary dramatically in detail — some include speed, shape, and sensor data; others just note "observed one UAP."

FBI

20 files (25.6%)
Time Span1944 – 1968
Primary TypeCase files & interview reports
With DVIDS Video0 files
Key Asset62-HQ-83894 complete file
Unique ItemsDetroit sighting, Krasuski account

All historical. The complete 62-HQ-83894 case file (14 sections) spans 21 years of FBI UFO investigations with newly declassified pages not previously available on the FBI Vault.

NASA

3 files (3.8%)
Time Span1965 & 1999
Primary TypeTranscript, audio, report
With Video/Audio1 file (only A/V in release)
Key AssetGemini 7 transcript + audio

Small but significant. The Gemini 7 transcript and audio are the only space-based UAP observations in the release. The COMETA report is a NATO-allied defense assessment.

Department of State

2 files (2.6%)
Time Span1952 & 1963
Primary TypePolicy memorandums
Key Asset1963 "Space Alien Race" memo

The smallest contributor, but the 1963 Executive Office memorandum — discussing contingency plans for alien contact — is among the most significant documents in the entire release.


What's Hidden — and What Isn't

44 of 78 files (56%) contain redactions. The stated policy is significant: redactions protect witnesses and facilities — not UAP information itself.

Redacted
44 files (56%)
Unredacted
34 files (44%)

What IS Redacted

  • Witness names and unit designations
  • Specific facility identifiers in military MISREPs
  • Some geographic coordinates in operational reports
  • Personnel details in FBI interview records
  • Operational details in recent email correspondence

What is NOT Redacted

  • UAP descriptions — shape, speed, altitude, behavior
  • Sensor types used (SWIR, IR, EO/IR, targeting pods)
  • Observer assessments and characterizations
  • Duration of encounters
  • General geographic regions
  • Historical policy discussions
🔒
The policy distinction matters. The PURSUE system's stated redaction framework explicitly says UAP data itself is not being withheld — only observer identities and sensitive installation details. If followed consistently, this means everything anomalous in these documents is being released as-is.

What Kind of Documents Are These?

The 78 files span seven distinct document categories.

~30

Mission Reports (MISREP)

Standardized military encounter reports submitted to AARO. The core of the modern files. Quality varies from detailed sensor data to single-sentence observations.

~7

Range Fouler Debriefs

U.S. Navy reports of unauthorized airspace intrusions during military operations. Often more detailed than MISREPs, with narrative descriptions of observer experiences.

18

FBI Case Files

Complete 62-HQ-83894 (14 sections/serials) plus Detroit sighting, Krasuski account, and Section 1/8. Spans 1944–1968.

6

Historical Memorandums

1940s–1960s Air Force, State Department, and Executive Office memos on flying discs, incident summaries, and policy questions.

3

Email Correspondence

Recent INDOPACOM and Pacific communications (2023–2025). Demonstrates active UAP reporting chains in current military operations.

3

Space & International

NASA Gemini 7 transcript and audio. French COMETA defense report on UFOs, released through U.S. channels.

2

Launch / Technical Records

Vandenberg AFB launch summary and booster failure modeling. Historical reference material with peripheral UAP relevance.


How This Analysis Was Produced

Every data point, quote, speed value, shape description, sensor reference, and geographic location on this page was extracted directly from the 78 document records in PURSUE Release 01 as published at war.gov/ufo on May 8, 2026.

What we did:

  • Parsed the complete PURSUE Release 01 manifest (78 records) including all document descriptions, metadata, and associated media pairings
  • Extracted explicit data points: speeds, altitudes, shapes, sensor types, durations, locations, and behavioral descriptions
  • Organized findings by category without embellishment or external interpretation
  • Quoted document language directly where possible (marked with quotation marks)

What we did not do:

  • Reference any incident not documented in the 78 files
  • Infer speeds, shapes, or behaviors not explicitly stated in documents
  • Cross-reference with external UAP databases, Wikipedia, or prior releases
  • Speculate about what should or shouldn't be in the release

Analysis date: May 8, 2026 • Source: war.gov/ufo — PURSUE Release 01